• ApfelstrudelWAKASAGI@feddit.de
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    0
    ·
    edit-2
    1 year ago

    You would need a crazy low probability of a lunatic or a mass murderer being down the line to justify not to kill one person

    Edit: Sum(2^n (1-p)^(n-1) p) ~ Sum(2^n p) for p small. So you’d need a p= (2×2^32 -2) ~ 1/(8 billion) chance of catching a psycho for expected values to be equal. I.e. there is only a single person tops who would decide to kill all on earth.

    • ChrisGrantsBrownlow@aussie.zone
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      1
      ·
      1 year ago

      You don’t even need a lunatic or mass murderer. As you say, the logical choice is to kill one person. For the next person, the logical choice is to kill two people, and so on.

      • ApfelstrudelWAKASAGI@feddit.de
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        0
        ·
        1 year ago

        It does create the funny paradox where, up to a certain point, a rational utilitarian would choose to kill and a rational mass murderer trying to maximise deaths would choose to double it.

            • interdimensionalmeme@lemmy.ml
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              0
              ·
              edit-2
              1 year ago

              Doubling action forever minimizes human deaths.

              Unless someone decide to hit kill. In that case, it’s them doing it. I’m invalidating the argument that pre-empting imaginary future mass murders justifies killing one person today.

              • ApfelstrudelWAKASAGI@feddit.de
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                1
                ·
                1 year ago

                Idk which moral system you operate under, but I’m concerned with minimising human suffering. That implies hitting kill because chances of a mass murderer are too high not to. You also don’t follow traffic laws to a t, but exercise caution because you don’t really care whose fault it ends up being, you want to avoid bad outcomes (in this case the extinction of humankind).

  • mofongo@lemm.ee
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    0
    ·
    1 year ago

    Thats actually a really good dilemma if you think about it. Like if everyone doubles it you basically don’t kill anyone. But you’ll always risk that there’s some psycho who likes killing and then you will have killed more. And if these choices continue endlessly you will eventually find someone like this. So killing immediately should be the right thing to do.

    • The Snark Urge@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      0
      ·
      1 year ago

      This is really the only answer. The only thing that makes it “hard” is having to face the brutality of moral calculus

      • LazaroFilm@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        0
        ·
        edit-2
        1 year ago

        Now, what if you’re not the first person on the chain? What if you’re the second one. Or the n one? What now? Would you kill two or n knowing that the person before you spared them?

        • Neato@kbin.social
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          0
          ·
          1 year ago

          The thing to do is kill now even if it’s thousands. Because it’s only going to get worse.

          The best time to kill was the first trolly. The second best time to kill is now.

          • apollo440@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            0
            ·
            1 year ago

            Yes, but it also kinda depends on what happens at and after junction 34, from which point on more than the entire population of earth is at stake.

            If anything, this shows how ludicrously fast exponentials grow. At the start of the line it seems like there will be so many decisions to be made down the line, so there must be a psycho in there somewhere, right? But (assuming the game just ends after junction 34) you’re actually just one of 34 people, and the chance of getting a psycho are virtually 0.

            Very interesting one!

            • The Snark Urge@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              0
              ·
              1 year ago

              It’s not that interesting. If you rephrase the question as a choice between a good option and a less good one, it’s still barely even a choice.

              “Would you rather have only one (or, say, trillions) die now, or would you like to allow *at a minimum *twice that many people die the second we talk to a sadist?”

              If you can’t choose the smaller number, all it means is that you lack moral strength - or the test proctor has put someone you know on the tracks, which is cheating. A highly principled person might struggle if choosing between their daughter and one other person. If it’s my kid versus a billion? That’s not a choice, that’s just needless torture. Any good person would sacrifice their kid to save a billion lives. I take that as an axiom, because anything else is patently insane.

              • apollo440@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                1
                ·
                edit-2
                1 year ago

                Kill fewer people now is obviously the right answer, and not very interesting.

                What is interesting is that the game breaks already at junction 34, which is unexpectedly low.

                So a more interesting dilemma would have been “would you kill n people now or double it and pass it on, knowing the next person faces the same dilemma, but once all humanity is at stake and the lever is not pulled, the game ends.”. Because that would involve first of all figuring out that the game actually only involves 34 decisions, and then the dilemma becomes “do I trust the next 33-n people not to be psychos, or do I limit the damage now?”. Even more interestingly “limiting the damage now” makes you the “psycho” in that sense…

    • Neve8028@lemm.ee
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      1
      ·
      1 year ago

      And then there’s some psycho on round 34 who kills all 8 billion people alive on earth.