Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/9438700
In almost 2 years of full-scale war, Russia has spent half the money from the National Welfare Fund (NWF), the main source of resources for a rainy day. At the end of 2023, almost 4 trillion rubles were spent from the National Welfare Fund, and now only 5 trillion remains in its so-called liquid part (savings in currency and gold that are easy to spend if necessary).
As analysts explained, Russia has less money for a rainy day, since in the first half of 2023 Russian oil was trading at a discount compared to other brands, the ruble exchange rate was relatively strong, so the required volumes were not received — and currency from the National Welfare Fund was sold. However, in the summer the situation changed: prices rose, the ruble weakened — and the authorities were finally ready to replenish the money.
“However, after Prigozhin’s rebellion, the dollar exchange rate soared to 100 rubles. And additional demand for currency would have accelerated the devaluation even more, so the National Welfare Fund was not replenished,” the analysts said.
At the same time, due to the need to finance an expensive war —“the items “National Defense” and “National Security” increased by 60% compared to 2021”— budget spending exceeded the legal limit by 3 trillion rubles. In addition, the budget deficit turned out to be higher than expected.
Is it even possible for Russia to run out of money? If they can’t pay for foreign goods, they can still print rubles for the local economy to use, can’t they? They’d have to become self-sufficient. Is that something they can do?
For most things, but not for others. The one that come to mind are electronics, that need a large international supply chain.
Second, lack of comparative advantage is a bitch. It’s always better to sell things you are good at and buy things you are not than become good at everything. That’s why international trade is a huge superpower.
They can’t run out of rubles so domestic payments won’t be much of a problem.
It might cause some inflation but within limits that is more a problem for the people than the state.
The bigger issue is that printing too much would tank the exchange rate. So either way, it would limit their capacity to import stuff.
And if they tried to compensate sinking exchange rates with printing even more rubles, they could get into hyperinflation territory.
1920s Germany enters the Chat