And the figures you’re quoting are from before the Metro opened.
Which is why the train modal share is just 1%. People had to catch a bus or drive to somewhere like Epping or Parramatta to get a train. The Hills were a pretty notorious public transport blackspot before the NW Metro opened.
I don’t see the logic in saying it hasn’t led to a shift in modal share before it opened?
Probably sometime during the Fraser government, back in the 1980s.
So an important difference between Australia and the US is that the Australian Federal Government already has a national Fuel Excise Tax, as well as Goods and Services Tax on Fuel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_taxes_in_Australia
But going back to the main point.
People can’t choose public transport over the car if the public transport system in the area isn’t up to scratch.
People on higher incomes can afford any increase to the cost of driving the most.
And they tend to live in the inner suburbs that have the best access to public transport.
It’s the working class people in the car-dependent outer suburbs — the western suburbs of Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane in particular — who are the least able to afford it.
And when you attempt to increase the cost of driving when there aren’t any good alternatives, you prompt a not-unjustified political backlash.
That political backlash is real. It’s why — for example — Australia no longer has a price on carbon.
And from a social policy standpoint, you effectively financially penalise people for being poor.
The reason why I cited the Northwest Metro is because it’s a great example of a rail service that’s better than driving for many trips. And it was built in an area that previously had quite poor access to public transport.
That means improving density along existing rail corridors, opening up new higher-density mixed-use developments along new rail corridors, and retrofitting high-frequency (every 10 minutes or greater) bus services to existing suburban areas.
Once good alternatives are in place, that’s when you ideally should take steps to make driving less attractive.
That can range from local interventions, such as pedestrianising streets and reducing the mandatory parking requirements in local planning codes.
It can potentially include congestion surcharges, parking taxes, etc.
And at a state or national level, increasing fuel excise, motor vehicles registration, stamp duty, etc.
“Probably sometime during the Fraser government, back in the 1980s.”
Huh? So you are actually agreeing with me. You think Australia can increase its gas tax today?
"So an important difference between Australia and the US is that the Australian Federal Government already has a national Fuel Excise Tax, as well as Goods and Services Tax on Fuel: "
Also this isn’t a difference between Australia and the US. The US also has a federal gas tax.
@owen@heatofignition@mondoman712 The really big missing piece of the puzzle in Australia — even the major capital cities — is the frequency of suburban bus services.
If you want to financially penalise people for driving, I think at a minimum you need to get that service up to a 10 minute all-day frequency.
Regional and rural transport services are another weak spot as well.
And I think you’re more likely to get the results you’re after if the increase in driving costs (however it’s implemented) comes either at the same time, or after services are improved to a reasonable standard.
You keep ignoring my question which just confirms my suspicion that the answer is “never.”
If your answer is "only after every person in Australia has 10 minute transit service within a 15 minute walk (20 hours a day??), your practical answer is never. Because that will never happen.
And you haven’t even engaged with my point that you’re equity analysis is just vibes. You haven’t actually done any cost/benefit analysis.
However if we decide it’s ok to make it expensive to own a car, we actually can envision a world where everyone lives within transit because people will choose to do that.
And the money we raise from fuel taxes – which are mostly paid by wealthy and middle class earners – can be used to actually expand transit.
I’m all for increasing the cost of driving, including fuel excises. And taxes on cars. And potentially congestion taxes.
But most people — at least in the mainland capitals — should be within comfortable walking distance of a public transport service that runs every 10 minutes first.
That’s not currently the case.
Price mechanisms aren’t as effective as they could be at changing behaviour if there are no viable alternatives in place.
So my answer is ideally petrol prices should be increased at the same time as decent bus services are rolled out across the capital cities.
And I think where public transport services are already at a decent standard, or as services are improved, we should be rolling out more localised disincentives to driving, such as pedestrianising streets.
@owen @heatofignition @mondoman712 The Hills Shire document you’re looking at is from 2019.
Notice how the Metro is referred to in the future we tense? “We anticipate…”
Well, the NW Metro only opened in 2019: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_North_West_Line
And the figures you’re quoting are from before the Metro opened.
Which is why the train modal share is just 1%. People had to catch a bus or drive to somewhere like Epping or Parramatta to get a train. The Hills were a pretty notorious public transport blackspot before the NW Metro opened.
I don’t see the logic in saying it hasn’t led to a shift in modal share before it opened?
The final phases of that Metro project, called Metro City & Southwest, are opening this year and in 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Metro_City_%26_Southwest
The NW Metro will also eventually connect with another Sydney Metro line to the new Western Sydney Airport. The first phase of that line is opening in 2026: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Metro_Western_Sydney_Airport
The second Infrastructure Australia report you linked to looks at the entire Sydney Metropolitan Area, not just northwest Sydney.
It’s like looking at overall modal share across the Greater New York metropolitan area to judge a new line in Brooklyn.
There are still public transport blackspots in Sydney. The Northern Beaches and the outer west are two prime examples.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
When do you expect transit to be sufficient to allow increasing gas prices? What do you think the Sydney mode share will be then?
@owen @heatofignition @mondoman712
“When do you expect transit to be sufficient to allow increasing gas prices?”
Probably sometime during the Fraser government, back in the 1980s.
So an important difference between Australia and the US is that the Australian Federal Government already has a national Fuel Excise Tax, as well as Goods and Services Tax on Fuel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_taxes_in_Australia
But going back to the main point.
People can’t choose public transport over the car if the public transport system in the area isn’t up to scratch.
People on higher incomes can afford any increase to the cost of driving the most.
And they tend to live in the inner suburbs that have the best access to public transport.
It’s the working class people in the car-dependent outer suburbs — the western suburbs of Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane in particular — who are the least able to afford it.
And when you attempt to increase the cost of driving when there aren’t any good alternatives, you prompt a not-unjustified political backlash.
That political backlash is real. It’s why — for example — Australia no longer has a price on carbon.
And from a social policy standpoint, you effectively financially penalise people for being poor.
The reason why I cited the Northwest Metro is because it’s a great example of a rail service that’s better than driving for many trips. And it was built in an area that previously had quite poor access to public transport.
That means improving density along existing rail corridors, opening up new higher-density mixed-use developments along new rail corridors, and retrofitting high-frequency (every 10 minutes or greater) bus services to existing suburban areas.
Once good alternatives are in place, that’s when you ideally should take steps to make driving less attractive.
That can range from local interventions, such as pedestrianising streets and reducing the mandatory parking requirements in local planning codes.
It can potentially include congestion surcharges, parking taxes, etc.
And at a state or national level, increasing fuel excise, motor vehicles registration, stamp duty, etc.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
“Probably sometime during the Fraser government, back in the 1980s.”
Huh? So you are actually agreeing with me. You think Australia can increase its gas tax today?
"So an important difference between Australia and the US is that the Australian Federal Government already has a national Fuel Excise Tax, as well as Goods and Services Tax on Fuel: "
Also this isn’t a difference between Australia and the US. The US also has a federal gas tax.
@owen @heatofignition @mondoman712
“Also this isn’t a difference between Australia and the US. The US also has a federal gas tax.”
Okay, I stand corrected on this point.
But my core point remains.
Look at the oil price shocks of the 1970s, early 2000s, and two years ago.
Just increasing the price of driving alone doesn’t create sustained modal shifts, unless public transport and cycling are viable alternatives.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
I’m trying to engage charitably but it honestly feels like you keep ignoring my question. When can Australia raise gas prices more?
@owen @heatofignition @mondoman712 The really big missing piece of the puzzle in Australia — even the major capital cities — is the frequency of suburban bus services.
Here’s the timetable for a typical Melbourne suburban bus route: https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/stop/15701/allambanan-drdorset-rd/2/bus/#StopPage:::datetime=2024-03-02T21%3A00%3A00.000Z&directionId=193&showAllDay=false&_auth=f308870091d891540e8a71291593644d70d97c0fb737e7cc29342c6a7802e96d
If you want to financially penalise people for driving, I think at a minimum you need to get that service up to a 10 minute all-day frequency.
Regional and rural transport services are another weak spot as well.
And I think you’re more likely to get the results you’re after if the increase in driving costs (however it’s implemented) comes either at the same time, or after services are improved to a reasonable standard.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
You keep ignoring my question which just confirms my suspicion that the answer is “never.”
If your answer is "only after every person in Australia has 10 minute transit service within a 15 minute walk (20 hours a day??), your practical answer is never. Because that will never happen.
And you haven’t even engaged with my point that you’re equity analysis is just vibes. You haven’t actually done any cost/benefit analysis.
@ajsadauskas @heatofignition @mondoman712
However if we decide it’s ok to make it expensive to own a car, we actually can envision a world where everyone lives within transit because people will choose to do that.
And the money we raise from fuel taxes – which are mostly paid by wealthy and middle class earners – can be used to actually expand transit.
@owen @heatofignition @mondoman712 The answer is definitely not never.
I’m all for increasing the cost of driving, including fuel excises. And taxes on cars. And potentially congestion taxes.
But most people — at least in the mainland capitals — should be within comfortable walking distance of a public transport service that runs every 10 minutes first.
That’s not currently the case.
Price mechanisms aren’t as effective as they could be at changing behaviour if there are no viable alternatives in place.
So my answer is ideally petrol prices should be increased at the same time as decent bus services are rolled out across the capital cities.
And I think where public transport services are already at a decent standard, or as services are improved, we should be rolling out more localised disincentives to driving, such as pedestrianising streets.
We should be doing that right now.