At best we can do what we already do and make estimates about groups, kind of like how we can have a fairly accurate predictions for climate but weather for a specific person’s house is extremely unreliable in any detail a couple days ahead except for massive weather systems like hurricanes. As you noted we already know the causes, but trends do not predict which individuals will commit crimes.
There will be no point in time that an algorithm will be able to predict that an individual will commit a crime at a specific point in time.
s you noted we already know the causes, but trends do not predict which individuals will commit crimes.
There will be no point in time that an algorithm will be able to predict that an individual will commit a crime at a specific point in time.
I think we might’ve had a bit of miscommunication here. I wasn’t talking about predictive policing at an individual level, that’s highly unlikely to be possible, at least with traditional computing technologies (not to mention that individual predictive policing isn’t even desirable for a multitude of reasons explored by many dystopian fiction authors throughout history) but rather at an area level. Being able to predict where and when crimes are likely to occur and with regularity, predicting that a specific drug store will probably be robbed within a narrow window of time for example. Even if such an algorithm was only accurate within a couple of hours it would fundamentally change how law enforcement functions, as well as the purpose it serves. Instead of merely enforcing the law after a crime is committed they could prevent crime/catch the criminal mid act without the need for informants, and without even knowing who they are gonna be arresting prior to catching them.
At best we can do what we already do and make estimates about groups, kind of like how we can have a fairly accurate predictions for climate but weather for a specific person’s house is extremely unreliable in any detail a couple days ahead except for massive weather systems like hurricanes. As you noted we already know the causes, but trends do not predict which individuals will commit crimes.
There will be no point in time that an algorithm will be able to predict that an individual will commit a crime at a specific point in time.
I think we might’ve had a bit of miscommunication here. I wasn’t talking about predictive policing at an individual level, that’s highly unlikely to be possible, at least with traditional computing technologies (not to mention that individual predictive policing isn’t even desirable for a multitude of reasons explored by many dystopian fiction authors throughout history) but rather at an area level. Being able to predict where and when crimes are likely to occur and with regularity, predicting that a specific drug store will probably be robbed within a narrow window of time for example. Even if such an algorithm was only accurate within a couple of hours it would fundamentally change how law enforcement functions, as well as the purpose it serves. Instead of merely enforcing the law after a crime is committed they could prevent crime/catch the criminal mid act without the need for informants, and without even knowing who they are gonna be arresting prior to catching them.