Likely the HTS, which is the main rebel group that lead the new offensive and which has already absorbed or eliminated many other groups in Syria.
They are a Sunni Islamist group, but they also are against Al-Queda. But only opposed to them since 2020. But HTS is still considered a terrorist organization by the US, UK, and Canada. But Timber Sycamore shows historically that the US may publicly designate a group as terrorists in Syria while style still supporting them privately. HTS is strongly opposed to Russia and has spilled a lot of blood to prove it.
So, in short, is this a good or bad event: I dunno.
I really hope the leader is as moderate as he claims. He has the historic chance to establish something. Or to fuck shit up even more
He seems like he follows whatever gives him the best position. Projecting moderation to the west is a no-brainer, but he also has to contend with projecting the correct stance to the groups inside Syria and that is likely going to be a much less moderate one.
There is also the outside factors of Russia, Iran, and the US. There are a lot of considerations for all of them and I won’t even pretend to predict how they will all act and react, but I do want acknowledge they can and likely will all drastically affect Syria.
Yeah, even if the leader has good intentions, his second or third in command might have less good intentions - and the ability to change position.
Hopefully not another Libya, but I fear it will be another Libya.
Syrian Civil War is over. Now another Syrian Civil War will begin
i somehow doubt that that widely divergent alliance of convenience will hold any reasonable time. there’s a massive issue of ceasefire between SDF and SNA/SSG/FSA or however they’re called now, and it’s not like the latter is a monolith. there is everything from former AQ jihadis to secularists and minorities like Druze
there already seems to be sectarian divide precipitating between shias and sunnis
Well, there’s a different group known as Syrian Democratic Forces that control the Northeastern of the country, a different group from the ones that took the Syrian capital and the western areas of the country.
My prediction is. We might see another civil war between these 2 different group.
A theocracy likely
Absolutely none. The strongest force is now the HTS AFAIK, but there are a whole bunch of other groups involved in the current offensive, both Islamist and Secular. This could go anywhere from free elections (okay probably not this one) to another dictatorship to civil war 2: electric boogaloo.
you can take a guess by looking at how HTS/SSG administered areas looked like two weeks ago. they might be aiming for something like very slightly more liberal saudi arabia (women are allowed to study)
Disorder
The two moderate beheader factions will push out the extremist beheaders, then fight among themselves.
Not sure about that; the current majority leader comes from extremist roots.
HTS is currently pledged to Syrian Salvation Government, which is basically the opposition government in exile (operating from Istanbul), governing NW Syria (4 mil pop) from the back seat for the last 10 years. HTS is just acting as its main (but not only) militia organization, and Jolani said HTS will oversee the Syrian state’s transition to SSG.
We’ll hear the names of Mohammed al-Bashir and Mustafa al-Mousa in the coming days.
HTS mostly consists of militants splintered off from Al Qaeda and ISIS, and waged war against them. Apparently they gave up “Salafist” terrorism to turn into a Syrian Nationalist movement instead. Jolani sounded more moderate than I was expecting, so let’s hope the new western backed puppet state brings some peace to Syrians after all.
The same thing with a different face
Islamofascists worse than what it’s replacing.
Okay setting aside the absolute lack of basis for that statement, are you saying that with a full understanding of how horrible Assad was for the people of Syria?
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