• 0 Posts
  • 165 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
cake
Cake day: June 30th, 2023

help-circle

  • The silver lining here is that because the Republican supreme Court so vastly overplayed their hand here, they might inadvertantly have saved the nation from a fascist takeover.

    Hear me out:

    Joe Biden was previously doomed to be a 1-term president. The last election was an anti-Trump referendum, and it was a squeaker! Very little abundant base was actually excited be voting for Biden.

    Heading into the next election we were ALWAYS going to have a mediocre Biden presidency, where none of our major crisis was solved, because Biden never aimed that high to begin with. It was never going to be enough to excite the base on the left.

    And worse, with Republicans controlling the House, the second half of Biden’s term was doomed to be a do-little presidency. Going into the election we were going to be asked to vote for a man who hadn’t done much for the last two years, and who never even talked a good game about the radical change we need (universal healthcare, universal basic income, removing ALL student debt, etc).

    Trump being back in the ballot helps a bit, but I’m not sure people are still feeling the immediacy and the urgency to keep him out of the oval office as they did at the end of this last term.

    It was going to be another squeaker, and my money was on the Republicans because of their ability to ratfuck the vote with gerrymandering and voter suppression.

    But NOW we have the supreme Court lighting a fire under the left. They struck down roe, and they struck down student loan forgiveness.

    That may be enough to put us over the edge.





  • The main probably with scientific publishing is that our threshold for statistical significance is way too low.

    If we allow the threshold to sit at a 1 percent chance that results of the study were random chance, it means that 1 percent of all publications at that level of certainly are going o mislead the public if the media reports on them. And with the volume of research published every day, that adds up to a LOT of misinformation.

    It’s not even bad science, it’s bad reporting and widespread scientific illiteracy. But neither of those are going away.


  • Oh, it was nothing more than just showing off the technology, really. It wasn’t a committed bit.

    I cloned my voice then left a voicemail that said something like: “hey buddy it’s me. My car broke down and I’m at… Actually I don’t know where I’m at. I walked to the gas station and borrowed this guy’s phone. He said he’ll give me a ride into to town if I can get him $50 bucks. Could you venmo it to him at @franks_diner? I’ll get you back as soon as I can find my phone. … By the way this is really me, definitely not a bot pretending to be me.”




  • I use YouTube for tutorials, education, and entertainment all the time. And YouTube music is how I listen to all my music.

    I’ve been paying for the YouTube premium version for my family since day one.

    Recently they took away my grandfathered-in pricing. It really costs me a ton of money.

    But I remember that I’m keeping ads off my screens, my parents’ screens, and my kids screens… And we all use YouTube music all the time… So…

    Yeah, a lot of money, but honestly, probably the best subscription I have.

    I could never go back to ads.




  • LitRPG is almost entirely unreadable. Incredibly cringe dialogue, amateur writing, etc.

    It’s never, ever great. But, sometimes it’s just a lot of stupid fun. I feel deep shame at how much time I’ve spent on Eric Ugland’s Good Guys and Bad Guys series.

    and J.R. Mathews did a good job with his book Jake’s Magical Market.

    Seriously, this stuff has no literary value. For each of these series I went in with the attitude that the moment I get bored, I’m out … And with all of the ones I’ve mentioned, they sucked me in very effectively.

    Note: they all almost universally suffer from really rushed and stupid beginnings… there’s no subtle or elegant way to start a story in this genre.






  • You’re wandering into one of the great questions of our age: what is intelligence? I don’t have a great answer. All I know is that gpt-4 can REASON, and does so better than the average human.

    It’s gpt-4 self-aware? Yes. To an extent. It knows what it is, and can use that information in its reasoning. It knows it’s an LLM, but not which model.

    Can it make judgement calls? Yes. Better than the average human.

    Understand meaning? Absolutely. To a jaw-dropping extent.

    Accuracy and correctness… Depends on the type of question.

    What you need to understand is that gpt-4 isn’t a whole brain. Think of it as if we have managed to reproduce the language center of the brain. I believe this is mechanism for higher reasoning in the human brain.

    But just as in humans with right-brain injuries, the language center is disconnected from reality at times.

    So, when you think about gpt-4 as the most important, difficult to solve part of the brain, you start to understand that with some minimal supporting infrastructure, you now have something very similar to a complete brain.

    You can use vector databases to give it long-term memory, and any kind of data retrieval used to augment it’s prompts improved accuracy and reduces hallucinations almost entirely.

    With my very mediocre programming skills, I managed to build a system that is curious, has a long-term memory, and do a wide variety of tasks, enough to easily replace an entire customer service, tech support team, sales team, and marketing team.

    That’s just ME, and working with the gpt-4 that’s available to the public with a bunch of guardrails on it. Today.

    Imagine a less-restricted system, with infrastructure built by an experienced enterprise coding team, and with just one more generation of LLM improvement? That could wipe out half the white collar workforce.

    If LLM improvement was only geometric, and not even exponential (as it clearly is), in 10 years these things will be smarter AND MORE CREATIVE than all humans.

    The truth is that we’re going to be there in 5 years.