Edit: Here’s the exact same clip on the standard YouTube Watch page.
courtesy of zagorath
Brandon Sanderson the fantasy author
For those uninterested in watching a youtube short (sorry), the theory is pretty simple:
COVID and the death of theatres broke the film industry’s controlled, simple and effective marketing pipeline (watch movie in theatres -> watch trailer before hand -> watch that tailer’s movie in theatres …) and so now films have the same problems books have always had which is that of finding a way to break through in a saturated market, grab people’s attention and find an audience. Not being experienced with this, the film industry is floundering.
In just this clip he doesn’t mention streaming and TV (perhaps he does in the full podcast), but that basically contributes to the same dynamic of saturation and noise.
Do note that Sanderson openly admits its a mostly unfounded theory.
For me personally, I’m not sure how effective the theatrical trailers have been in governing my movie watching choices for a long time. Certainly there was a time that they did. But since trailers went online (anyone remember Apple Trailers!?) it’s been through YouTube and online spaces like this.
Perhaps that’s relatively uncommon? Or perhaps COVID was just the straw that broke the camel’s back? Or maybe there’s a generational factor where now, compared to 10 years ago, the post X-Gen and “more online” demographic is relatively decisive of TV/Film sales?
I don’t disagree with him on the point that the old model has been broken but I think it’s more complex. I think it was Matt Damon that said steaming has hurt the creative side of the industry because dvd sales can’t make the budget back for risky project anymore. That’s not the full issue either though. Theater experience has been going down and there’s a billion other ways to get entertainment in a social way now. This all leads to studios desperate to keep the spice flowing to only back what they believe are sure returns on investment while simultaneously trying to cut costs by reducing or at least limiting the compensation to creatives. There aren’t as many risks getting taken and producers are reclaiming the power that had long been surrendered to directors and writers.
We’re almost back to the old studio system, if we ain’t already there
Another factor I’ve heard is that investment types and thinking have taken root in the film industry and established a baseline gross profit margin as an expectation compared to the past that was more happy to break even.
It makes sense because it’s also the story of the times I suspect, and there’s likely a lesson to be learnt that how we useful market dynamics can be some aspects of civilised life may be best left effectively non-profit.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all, that thinking has infected everything.
Yea. A basic heuristic I picked up a while ago was “was this better before the accountants got involved”. I got it from someone telling me their profession was clearly better before accountants ruined it.
I think it’s always been a fight by producers to reign in the power. Right now there’s a huge shakeup to the industry and almost no one has figured it out so the industry falls back on “safe” money tied up in producers and companies. If anything this shift should be better for independent creators as the Internet allows for more of a democratization of resources so it will probably swing back.
Also, I think this is probably a classic problem of confirmation bias, cause we have plenty of studios producing cheaper movies, A24 comes to mind. A lot of great directors and writers are taking risks on high-budget streaming series, people like Apple, Amazon, and HBO are throwing wads of cash at 1/2 season flops that are cool ideas, some of which hit big.
On top of that, we look back with rose-tinted glasses at the “glory days” of film when directors had more power than studios etc, but I would bet a lot that pound for pound the industry wasn’t nearly as proportionately experimental as it is today. Maybe we’re in a lull compared to recent years (maybe) but overall the trajectory is pretty steadily upwards.