“2024 – a masterclass in climate destruction.” That is how UN secretary general António Guterres started his address to world leaders at Cop29 on Tuesday.
“Families running for their lives before the next hurricane strikes; Workers and pilgrims collapsing in insufferable heat; Floods tearing through communities, and tearing down infrastructure; Children going to bed hungry as droughts ravage crops. All these disasters, and more, are being supercharged by human-made climate change,” he said.
The world leaders event happens at the start of Cop, intended to spur and inspire their negotiators towards a strong final agreement. But it was Guterres that read the riot act, with very strong words on the human cost of the climate crisis, and the extreme urgency of action.
“No country is spared,” he emphasised, with global supply chain shocks sending prices soaring for everyone. “Unless emissions plummet and adaptation soars, every economy will face far greater fury.”
With solar and wind the cheapest source of new electricity almost everywhere, “doubling down on fossil fuels is absurd,” he said. “The clean energy revolution is here. No group, no business, and no government can stop it. But you must ensure it is fair and fast.”
Define “plummet.” If by plummet we mean global GHG emissions decrease by about half from current levels, by 2030, then I don’t see that happening. Not unless all the governments of the world are somehow taken over by climate activists. Or, maybe if there’s a global economic collapse. Whatever it is, something radical would have to change for that to become even remotely possible.
Roughly 70% of factors that have contributed to climate change can’t be mitigated in less than 300-500+ years. And all major metrics indicate we are doing worse at mitigating the damage on that last 30% each year. 2023 was a record year for greenhouse gas emissions. 2024 is shaping up to be similar if not worse.