Big picture: China's births might hit a record low this year, deepening its demographic crisis. Academics admit births could fall to 7 million, with profound implications for the world's second-largest economy.
By the numbers:
* Estimated births in 2023: 6 million to 8 million.
* Drop in births over the past five
It’s not so weird when that country has about 1 out of every 6 humans on earth, and when 10.56 million people died in China in 2022. They’re experiencing decline not growth.
I didn’t say it was weird. The numbers are still incredible.
And with nearly 1.5 BILLION people, it’s not like they’ll run out of people.
This isn’t a Children of Men situation.
The number of people is irrelevant in the context, only the birth vs death rate. For context, there were about 10.5 million deaths in China last year. For social stability, you’d want the population to at most have a slight decline. A 50% higher death rate than birth rate is NOT slight.
Again, adding over 7 million people is what’s important, and it’s a huge number.
We’re talking about a loss of 3 million once you factor in deaths. If it was a country like Canada, with a population of less than 50 million people, that would be problematic.
But with a population pool of 1.5 billion, what’s the actual concern? What social instability does this cause that a population of 1.5 billion already doesn’t?
There will never be too few people in China, and a slow population decline from 1.5 billion allows for a more sustainable future.